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Australian Rules
Punters have shown very little mercy for bookies on the AFL this season, and the caning continued last weekend.
Seven outright favourites won (5 covered the handicap), and with the other match ending in a draw ( both the Roos and Swans were around 2.00), and that meant most of that money went back as well. A win to North Melbourne would have been a better result for us as we took a couple of late bets totaling $17,000 on the Swans at 2.00, but having said that, Brett Kirk's point could have easily been a goal. There were a lot of queries about what would happen if the Roos had have been given the 4 match points after it was noted that the Swans had 19 men on the field. It is pretty simple really, nothing would have happened. Bookmakers pay on the result when the players leave the field of play, that is in effect our 'correct weight' signal. As it turned out, for the records, the score would have remained a draw anyway, it is just that the Swans would not have shared in the 4 premiership points.
One punter raised some eyebrows on ANZAC Day. He had a double of $20,000 on Collingwood and Geelong to win at 1.77, then after the Magpies won the first leg, he logged on again and had $15,000 on Geelong at 1.24. He got the money, but would have had a sick feeling in his stomach for the entire Fremantle v Geelong match. The Cats staggered over the line by one solitary point, with our punting friend coming out well ahead.
When John Worsfold openly admits his side (the Eagles) can't make the final 8, then you have to wonder how they will confront sides in the coming weeks. The Eagles were hopeless against the Bulldogs, and that was one of the few results that we were looking for. Amazingly there was plenty to say that the Eagles could get within 25 points of the Bulldogs, including one bet of $15,000 at 1.92. They are now into 7.00 clear second pick to win the wooden spoon, and while I can't see Melbourne winning enough games to surpass the Eagles, they do look a good thing to run second last.
If somebody had said to you before round one that Carlton would travel west and be a long odds on favourite to beat the Eagles, it would be easy to see why you would be looking to get them locked up and certified, but that is what confronts us this Friday night. Although a confessed Blues fan, I do find it extremely difficult to be lining up to take short odds Carlton, but the Eagles are in poor form and will be light on for personnel having lost Daniel Kerr this week. Looking back over Carlton's record at Subiaco, it get's even harder to gather any confidence (they have lost at their last 10 visits), but with the Eagles as decimated as they are, the Blues cannot really be too much better than the 1.57 they are trading at. They might well come away with a victory, but laying ordinary sides at bad odds has kept bookies in the game for several years.
Richmond were valiant in defeat against Hawthorn last week, and there has been early support for the Tigers to put St Kilda away on Saturday night. The game is at Telstra Dome where St Kilda have a 7-3 record over the Tigers, but those wins were prior to the 'shut down' football style they are playing now. We did open Richmond at 2.50, and that was quickly taken, as was the 15 points start that they were receiving. There has been a similar amount of interest shown in Melbourne to beat Fremantle, although the market hasn't moved as the match is on Sunday. Invariably 'Sunday favourites' always firm in the betting as we get further into the weekend, but plenty think the Demons van win, or at the very least get with the 24½ point handicap.
The Bulldogs have done us numerous favours over the past few seasons, and our AFL analyst thinks that they can deliver another one on Sunday. The Bulldogs take on the Swans at the SCG, and they are one of a few sides who have a good record there, winning 5 times from 12 appearances. It is difficult to know what the tactics will be here, the Doggies are a free running side who can score quickly and often, so do the Swans have the man power to shut them down? Maybe not, so they are worth a risk at the short price (1.47), or in particular conceding 15½ points start.
Rugby League
Although four of the six favourites won last weekend in the NRL, it really was a mixed bag of results that could have seen either bookies or punters win.
We were fortunate enough to come out on the right side of the ledger through a couple of sidesteps, but it wouldn't have been hard to lose as there was money for the two outsiders who won.
The Dragons were one side that belonged in that category when they beat the Roosters on Friday night. With Mark Gasnier back in the Dragons side, we went chasing money for the Roosters (who drifted from 1.33 out to 1.40), and while there was no surge of activity, we did find a couple of decent bets including one of $9000 at 1.36. We also said last week that there had been a solid early 'go' for Manly, but then there was a big late rally for the Bulldogs in that match, so much so that we wanted Manly to win, and win easily. That is how the game panned out, putting paid to bets of $12,000, $10,000 and several smaller bets on the Bulldogs with 7 points start. What we won on Manly went sailing out the door however when punters unloaded on the Titans on Sunday, and they were duly rewarded when the Titans defeated the Warriors by 12 points. One AFL regular placed $17,000 on the Titans at 1.42, and there were numerous bets around the $5000 mark for the Gold Coast to beat the 7½ point handicap. They still sit perched up on top of the NRL ladder, but there is still very little faith being shown in them by punters. That suits us, as we believe that most still think that the Titans will falter when they have to travel, we will wait and see!
One of those trips away for the Gold Coast will take place on Saturday when they travel to Newcastle, and this is an extremely tricky game. The Titans have 3 players backing up from Country v City on Friday, while the Knights have 2, but one of those is Danny Buderus, and he would be an important 'out' if he was to miss on Saturday. Punters keep right away from these games until they know who is playing, and that works for us as we treat them the same way. There has been little action to date apart from a few small bets on Newcastle at 1.80, but it is really a game that could go either way.
The Warriors return home after a couple of decent floggings away, but they have a growing injury toll and a possible upset looms on Sunday. They host Canberra, who will have Todd Carney backing up, but the Raiders have been one of the surprise packets of 2008, and the Warriors have a massive list of players on the sidelines. They have also leaked plenty of points in most of their matches this year, especially in the early part of the game, and with the Raiders consistently scoring up around the 30 points mark, we are keen to take the New Zealanders on conceding 5½ points start. The early signs are there that we will get our wish as the first two bets on the game were both of $2000, and both for New Zealand at the minus.
Rugby Union
Last weeks Super 14s results appeared a nightmare for bookies at first glance with all six favourites saluting, however four of them did not cover the handicap which meant bookies probably finished marginally ahead.
The Crusaders conceding 12½ points to the Blues, the Brumbies 15½ to the Lions and Chiefs 13½ to the Reds all failed to cover and all were the median of heavy support, most particularly the Brumbies on Friday night who carried several wagers of $3,000 or more. That meant that going into the Saturday night blockbuster, Waratahs and Sharks, bookies had a handy lead. While the lead was eaten into a little with the Waratahs backed from 1.65 into 1.60, the final two games saw money for both sides, the Cheetahs backed from 6½ into 5½ before money for the Hurricanes while the Highlanders had their admirers against the Stormers in Cape Town. Both score lines went the way of the favourites however I'm sure bookies escaped relatively unscathed.
Week twelve of Super 14s once again has a couple of stand out clutch games and we kick off with one of them on Friday evening as the Crusaders host the Sharks in Christchurch. A loss to the Sharks will see them out of the 4 for the first time this season and I'm sure its not what the lads from Durban were after. The money to date has been for the home side backed from 1.18 into 1.16 and the start firming from 11½ into 12½. Its back to wall time for the Sharks and with that incentive alone we will be happy to risk the Crusaders. That game is followed by the Reds hosting the Blues in Brisbane and it's a must win for the visitors if they are to hold any aspirations of taking part in this years finals. They are 1.55 and must concede 4½ points while the Reds are 2.50. Little interest has been show in any of the other games to date however I'm sure punters will rally behind the Blues given their motivation and their improved effort against the Crusaders last week.
The Friday rounds off with the Cheetahs hosting the Highlanders in Bloemfontein. The Cheetahs are 1.65 and are conceding 3½ to the Highlanders, with the winner more than likely out of wooden spoon calculations. The Highlanders have had moderate support to date firming marginally fro 2.30 into 2.27 however the home side will prove difficult to shift.
The Saturday games kick off with the Hurricanes hosting the Lions in Wellington and must concede 17½ points, before the second big game in Perth, with the Force receiving 4½ from the Chiefs who will be desperate for a win before the South African leg of their games. The Chiefs are a short 1.57 without Brendon Leonard and we will be happy to take them on.
The week rounds off in South Africa as the battered Bulls host the Waratahs before the Stormers host the Brumbies in Cape Town. The Waratahs have firmed from 1.65 into 1.63 with the line moving from 3½ to a flat 4. Its hard to envisage any motivation for the home team given their position on the table and the Bakkies Botha contract debacle. The final game will be a ripper as the Stormers without Burger and Chivanga take on a virtual full strength Brumbies unit keen on maintaining the wood on the home team. A loss here spells the end for either franchise as they chase a semi finals berth so this game is likely to be a ripsnorter. The Stormers have already firmed from 1.42 into 1.40 and have admirers who are happy to concede 7½ points to the Brumbies. We think the 3.00 on offer the visitors is great value so we'll be happy to accommodate any Stormer supporters.
Golf
Adam Scott won his sixth PGA tour title when he defeated Ryan Moore on the third play-off hole to capture the Byron Nelson Championship. The 27yo Australian took a three shot lead into the final round only to see it dissipate through the day.
He was then forced to make a 9ft birdie putt on the 72nd hole to get into a play-off with Moore before sinking the 48 footer to win the tournament. Scott arrived in Texas as the highest ranked golfer in the field and he was determined to put his stamp on the event. Everything appeared to be going to plan before his closing round of one over par 71 found him in the play-off. At this point Scott would have been a firm favourite, as Moore has yet to win on the tour, had on three previous occasions been runner up and had never been in the pressure cooker which is a play-off. It still took a miracle putt from the eventual winner to clinch the title and I suppose that is where the irony of the win lies. If the smooth swinging Aussie has a weakness it is his putting, so to sink the clutch putt on the 72nd hole before his 48ft bomb to win the title would have given him enormous satisfaction.
It was mentioned last week that this event was a great betting affair and it certainly was. While Chad Campbell and Ian Poulter were our poorest results, Adam Scott had more than his share of admirers at the 13.00 on offer. We also took a hiding on the tournament head to head when Scott was backed from 1.83 into 1.69 to beat home masters champ Trevor Immelman. All in all it was not a great tournament and Ryan Moore, friendless at 67.00, would have gone a long way to ease the pain.
This week we head to North Carolina for the Wachovia Championship where defending champion Tiger Woods is unavailable through injury. Phil Mickelson heads the betting at 11.00 from last weeks winner, Adam Scott at 15.00 and then the real movers in this event, Vijay Singh 17.00 into 15.00 and Jim Furyk, 21.00 into 19.00, both backed to win more than $30,000 by a client from Brisbane. The quality at the top of the betting doesn't stop there however, with Aussie Geoff Ogilvy at 21.00, Stewart Cink 23.00 and last years runner up Steve Stricker at 29.00 who along with Baddeley, Donald, Appleby, Garcia, Rose and Immelman make for a pretty strong field before next weeks Players Championship. The money for Singh and Furyk is not surprising given both have a win and runner-up finish here in the last six years, however Stricker, Mickelson and Cink had top five finishes behind Tiger last year and are perhaps in slightly better recent form. There has also been some specking for Billy Mayfair at 101.00 and Ken Duke at 126.00 who were both prominent last year but both would be hard to have on recent form.
Formula One
The Spanish Grand Prix saw Ferrari finish 1-2 when current world champion Kimi Raikkonen finished over 3 seconds ahead of team-mate Felipe Massa, and on what we have seen the past few races, the Ferrari dominance looks set to continue.
They have their cars firing on all cylinders as was seen by the times in the qualifying sessions as well as the race itself, and Raikkonen is now a raging hot 1.33 chance to win the title again. Lewis Hamilton is on the second line of betting at 5.50 after finishing fifth at the weekend, while Massa is next in line at 8.00, and Ferrari are nearly unbackable at 1.15 to win the constructors title. The race itself was a very quiet affair from a betting perspective, and we recorded a very small victory. Once Raikkonen drew pole, he was too short for most punters at 1.35, although we did take a few small bets for Massa at 5.50. The podium place book actually saw more action than the 'winner' book, with most of the bets coming for Hamilton (2.35), Heidfeld (4.00), and a couple of roughies, including Mark Webber at 21.00.
Motorbikes
It is getting to the stage of the MotoGP season where a couple of serious questions need to be asked about where Casey Stoner is at. Something is wrong with his Ducati, and they simply don't have the speed that saw Stoner dominate last season on his way to winning the title.
It isn't a 'one off' as he has also had trouble clocking fast times in any of the qualifying sessions, and that has resulted in the Aussie taking unnecessary risks during races. He has nearly come to grief a few times, but maybe that can all be turned around this weekend? Punters think so anyway, as the opening 3.50 for Casey to win the Chinese GP was quickly taken and he is now into 3.25. We are not convinced however, and while there has been a decent gap from the previous race, it will be interesting to see if Ducati have found any problems. Stoner won the Chinese last year, and that was despite him finishing fourth fastest qualifier behind Valentino Rossi. In that particular race, Rossi wound up in third spot behind Stoner and Dani Pedrosa, and that duo, along with Jorge Lorenzo (4.00), make up most of the market on this years race. Lorenzo is yet to convince punters he is the real deal, but we have noticed that apart from Stoner, Rossi has also been attracting support at 3.75. I would say that most will wait to see what happens with the sessions on Friday and Saturday before making up their minds who to back, and who can blame them?