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Australian Rules
The Western Bulldogs landed possibly the biggest 'legitimate' betting plunge in AFL history when they thrashed Hawthorn last week. I say 'legitimate', with the explanation that there was nothing to do with injuries or weather that brought about the plunge, just a steady flow of money. The other thing that made it more impressive was that Hawthorn kept attracting money has their price drifted, and thankfully that was the case as it meant that escaped with a relatively light fine. As much as 2.90 was given for the Bulldogs, and they were a solid 2.15 at game time, with the handicap moving 10 points to close at 5½ start. Some of the bigger bets included $15,000 with 14 start, $10,000 at 2.40 and $8000 at 2.30. On the other side of the ledger, we took bets of 5000 pounds for Hawthorn at 1.68, with the biggest handicap bet being $10,000 conceding 6 points start.
Punters got the better of bookies again when 6 short priced favourites won, one slight outsider was victorious (Port Adelaide), and of course the Bulldogs. All bar one of the winning favourites covered the spread, but fortunately we found a lot of interest in a few of the underdogs. One Sydneysider placed $10,000 on the Eagles with 25 start against Collingwood, and also had $10,000 on Melbourne (+26½ ) against St Kilda. He was on the receiving end of two floggings, as was the punter who bet $8000 that Richmond would get within 23 points of Sydney. Rain was predicted in Sydney, but it never arrived until three quarter time, and by then the damage was done for Richmond backers.
This week we have another six favourites that have opened 1.25 or shorter. The writing is on the wall that punters will couple them up in multis, and steer clear of the other two 'danger' games. The first of those is Richmond v Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday, and the second will be the big clash between St Kilda and the Bulldogs on Sunday. Adelaide have hit a bit of a slump, will be without Brett Burton this week, and go to Melbourne with a 1-3 win ratio against Richmond at the MCG. We can see them being beaten, and are keen to take the Crows on, but the money has been slow. In the first two days of trading less than $1500 has come for the Crows who have already drifted from 1.50 out to 1.57. A similar situation has arisen with the Bulldogs as we go hunting for money on them as well. The Doggies won the first encounter this year by 38 points, but the Saints showed enough improvement last week to suggest they can provide an upset. After opening at 1.50, the Bulldogs have eased slightly to 1.52, but there has been little initial interest.
Melbourne were already in deep trouble, but their pile of woes got a lot higher when they lost Russell Robertson fro the season. That leaves the Demons without a forward line, and punters jumped into the handicap betting on the Demons v Collingwood game as soon as it opened. A series of bets totalling nearly $8000 came for Collingwood conceding 45½ points start when betting opened on Tuesday. Historically matches between these two sides have been close, but we can see where punters are coming from. Who is going to kick goals for Melbourne?
The win by the Bulldogs over Hawthorn saw a reshuffle to the flag market. Prior to last weekend the Hawks were pusging Geelong for favouritism at 3.00, but that loss has seen Hawthorn ease out to 4.00, with the Bulldogs in from 14.00 to 10.00. Collingwood (21.00-9.00), Brisbane (23.00-13.00) and Sydney (17.00-13.00) were the other movers from the weekend, and all of a sudden the premiership race has a few major contenders.
Rugby League
The money for Melbourne Storm was right on the mark last week when there were several late withdrawals from the Bulldogs side. Money talks all languages, and it became pretty clear on Thursday that there was something amiss in the game, and it wasn't really a surprise when Sonny Bill Williams and company were announced as being non starters. The handicap in this game moved from -12½ to close at -20½. The largest bet taken was $10,000 at -18½, with the Bulldogs attracting several bets from UK based punters, the biggest of those being 2500 pounds getting 15 points start. We didn't hold too many hopes with the Bulldogs, and they were thumped 46-0.
Souths were one of the better backed sides of the round, but they were humbled 26-12 by the Dragons. Following the withdrawal of Mark Gasnier from the Dragons side, Souths firmed from 2.75 into 2.35, and the handicap moved a full 3 points. Several four figure bets were recorded under their name, and for once we were looking for a win by a favourite, and got our wish!
Origin Two betting is up again after the naming of the sides, and the drama's at the judiciary. Queensland have firmed up marginally (1.60 into 1.58), but there is no interest in New South Wales to go to a 2-0 series lead. The Blues are already 2.40, and we have taken less than $200 fro them this week, whereas there is plenty of interest in Queensland. One very astute league client has coupled up Penrith to win this week into Qld with an outlay of $10,000 at 2.30, so it does seem as though the betting patterns will be similar to game one, with Queensland going in as clear favourites.
That bet wasn't the only one taken on Penrith, as they go into this round as possible the side who has attracted the most support. The Panthers take on the Sharks, who will be knocked around by the loss of Greg Bird and Paul Gallen to Origin duty, and that is why they now find themselves as 3.00 outsiders. Penrith did open at 1.50, but are now 1.40, and there are a couple of early bets of $5000 on them conceding 5½ points start.
The Bulldogs v Newcastle game has also suffered as a result of both the Origin and injury. Both sides put up dismal performances last week, but the early money has been for the Knights, who are slight outsiders. Two bets totaling $14,600 have already been placed on Newcastle at 2.10, so we will be looking for a much better effort from the Doggies than the one they put up last week.
Rugby Union
The final of Super 14s proved to be a great contest as the Waratahs threw everything at the Crusaders in Christchurch. Not surprising weight of possession told on the 'Tahs' with the best team for season 2008 coming out on top 20-12.
Bookmakers were given plenty of hope as the Waratahs scored the first two tries of the contest to lead 12-3 before a Mose Tuialili try just before the stroke of half time swung the complexion of the game. No doubt to that point the score line was a little flattering for the visitors but they were good enough in defence to hold the title favourites out while making the most of limited opportunities. The second half was all the Crusaders with their defence stepping up a notch to foil every Waratah thrust and force plenty of errors.
Betting on the game proved a little fruitless to punter and bookmaker alike. The bagmen were committed to the Crusaders through pre post betting and were not prepared to take them on while the Waratahs became great value as we pushed them out to 3.80 by kick off , the Crusaders a conservative 1.28. Still no takers ! The plan was to take the Crusaders on at the handicap, and while there was some interest conceding 8½ points we were compelled to go a flat 8 points to get them in. Once pushed to 8 there was plenty of interest including a bet of $5,000 from the UK and one from WA. Unfortunately you know the score, so with no takers for the Waratahs at 3.80 and the margin falling on 8 meaning a 'push' with all wagers on that number being refunded, the final score proved a tragedy for Lasseters.
While bookmakers might be licking their wounds after the final, the results of the season no doubt favoured them and few would have little to complain about.
Now that Super 14s are finished our focus is squarely on Internationals and we have three of interest on this weekend, all played Saturday. We have only just opened our markets on these games and will be treading warily until current form is exposed however the All Blacks do appear too strong for Ireland, which is indicated by the 15½ point start, while Argentina will start 8½ point favourites against Scotland. Due to the late declaration of the South African squad no market has opened on their clash with Wales however this is likely to be the most interesting of the weekend Internationals.
Golf
Kenny Perry had been trying for a month to grab a win and secure a place in this years US Ryder Cup team.. A tie for second at the AT &T two weeks ago which followed a tie for 15th at the Players where he looked in a winning position after 54 holes, was an indication the affable Kentuckian was in fine form.
This week at the Memorial, Perry was able to seal the deal, with a final round three under par 69, as every player in a position to win fell away. Oddly enough bookmakers were generous with their assessment of his chances as 34.00 was given. Take into account his recent form and the fact he had won here twice previously, with a runner-up finish, and you can see why he was well supported . He now joins Tiger Woods as the only players to have won the Memorial more than twice and is now the oldest winner of Jack Nicklaus' tournament.
Betting on the event was a little more brisk than in recent weeks but surprisingly favourite Phil Mickelson did not demand any takers. The 7.50 was not popular however Stewart Cink at 21.00, Sergio Garcia at 21.00, Geoff Ogilvy at 21.00 , Mike Weir at 41.00 and Sean O'Hair at 51.00 all were. Weir in particular provided us with a few tense moments before finishing in a tie for second with Matthew Goggin, Jerry Kelly and Justin Rose, two shots adrift of Perry.
This week we head to Memphis for the St Jude Championship. Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia head the betting at 17.00 ahead of Retief Goosen and David Toms at 19.00, Padraig Harrington at 21.00 and Stephen Ames at 23.00. Best backed have been Aussie Robert Allenby at 34.00, defending champion Woody Austin at 41.00, Brian Gay at 51.00 and Steve Lowery at 61,00, all backed to win in excess of $20,000. History says you don�t have to be a big hitter to win at Southwinds but you do need a quality game with some of the most difficult par 3�s on the PGA tour. Punters have again shied away from the top of the betting due to lack of consistency and the fact this course can produce something of an upset. One name does appear prominently in recent years however and not surprisingly its David Toms.
Formula One
The Formula One action moves across the Atlantic this week with the running of the Canadian Grand Prix. The Gilles Villeneuve circuit in Montreal is one of the more testing on the calendar as it has both long straights and tight chicanes, as well as walls and high kerbing. More often that not the safety car plays a major part in the Canadian GP, so the race is never really over. Last year's race was the first win for Lewis Hamilton, and that was after he qualified fastest, so the should be returning to Montreal with a fair amount of confidence on the back of a win in Monaco. Lasseters has installed Hamilton as second pick at 3.00, narrowly behind Kimi Raikkonen at 2.75, with Raikkonen's team-mate Felipe Massa next in the betting order at 4.25. The Canadian GP was a disaster for the Ferraris last year when Massa was 'black flagged', and Raikkonen was well beaten into fifth place, but they have improved vastly this year. It isn't as important to draw on the front row here as there are ample opportunities to pass in the straights, but punters have only wanted Raikkonen and Hamilton. Robert Kubica has had a terrific season to date even though he is yet to win a race, but we have noticed pretty good interest in Kubica to finish on the podium at 2.75.
Motorbikes
In last week's Lasseters Line we pointed out that Valentino Rossi looked a special in the Italian motoGP, and that is exactly what happened. Rossi's win at the weekend made it 7 Italian motoGP's in a row, and the race was never really in doubt. Rossi was 1.80 pre qualifying, but went into the race as a hot 1.50 chance after drawing pole position. The short quote meant that interest in the winner book disappeared, although we did take close to $1500 for second elect Dani Pedrosa at 5.00. Pedrosa also attracted some significant bets (one of 1000 pounds) to finish on the podium at 1.55, and he eventually would up in third place, behind Rossi and Casey Stoner. Stoner showed a welcome return to form after starting from four on the grid, and while he still faces an uphill battle to make it back to back titles, perhaps the problems he has been having with his Ducati have been rectified and he will be a major force in upcoming races.
This week the bikes will be in action again in Catalunya, and Rossi is clear favourite at 1.85 after three wins in a row. The news is all bad for any of the other riders who may think Rossi is susceptible in Catalunya as he has won there eight times in various classes. Stoner (6.00) did win this race last year, and following on from his improved showing last week, he must be the main danger.
The ankle injuries to Jorge Lorenzo should be well on the way to healing, and he is on the second line of betting at 5.00 along with Dani Pedrosa. Pedrosa was disappointing last start, and he was second in this race last year behind Rossi, albeit three seconds in arrears. Casey Stoner was the fastest qualifier last year before winding up in fourth position, but Stoner and his Ducati are really struggling at the moment, and there is no early interest in him at 7.00.