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2008 Beijing Games
Lasseters is only one of the hundreds of bookmakers around the world betting on the games in Beijing, and although we are a relative newcomer, punters have been finding their way to our site to take advantage of the differing viewpoints.
There has been a strong focus from Aussie punters on most of the big name Australians competing, but there has also been some 'smart' money for Australia not to fare so well.
The medal tally betting reveals some interesting trends, with a couple of punters betting on Australia to fall well short of the last two Olympics. Australia won 17 golds in Athens and 16 in Sydney, but the favourite way this time around is 10-12 gold medals which has been backed from 3.75 into 2.60. There has also been good support for 13-15 gold medals which is now into 2.75 after opening at 3.50. The overall medal tally has seen a similar move with 31-40 medals now the favourite way at 2.85 after opening at 4.50, and that total would be a long way short of the 49 in Athens and 58 in Sydney.
Federal Sports Minister Kate Ellis had a crack at her British counterpart Gerry Sutcliffe after the Englishman claimed that Great Britain would win more medals than Australia. We have to go back to Seoul in 1988 to find the last time that happened, and Australia has held a massive lead at the last three Olympics.
With Ian Thorpe gone, and Jana Rawlinson and Nathan Deakes on the sidelines, one can see why the Aussie medal tallies are likely to be down this time, but Great Britain seem to be putting a lot of faith in their cycling team this time around.
Anyway, Kate has put the acid on Sutcliffe telling him to put his money where his mouth is, and so are we! He can have 2.25 about GB getting more medals than us (Australia are 1.55), and he can even bet on who gets the most gold medals as well, with Australia at 1.75 and GB at 2.00.
Swimming will be the highlight for us all in this corner of the globe for the first week, and it will all culminate with Grant Hackett's attempt to make it three 1500 wins in a row. We have priced Hackett up at 1.50, and punters have kept right away at this point in time. There would be two reasons for that, the first being that most would like to see him perform in the 400 freestyle just to see how he is, and the main reason would definitely be all the talk surrounding the smog.
Once the games begin, hopefully we will see that the conditions won’t be a big deal, and then we should see the serious money arrive. The option we have opened on how Michael Phelps will perform has been really popular. Phelps is quoted at 3.50 to win eight gold medals which would eclipse the seven medals that the great Mark Spitz won, but we have been happy to take punters on at the moment. There is so much uncertainly surrounding these games, and also the quality of the opposition, that Phelps would need to be at his very best for the entire week to break that outstanding performance. He is capable, but is there another Ian Thorpe lurking in the background that will put an end to that?
Australian Rules
After a couple of weeks on the ropes, punters fought back bravely on round 18 of AFL.
Seven of the eight favourites got the chocolates, with the Kangaroos the only side to provide an upset when they defeated the Lions. There was one punter who had an interesting tale to tell after outlaying $20,000 on the Sydney Swans. He placed $10,000 on the Swans with 16½ points-start against the Bulldogs at 1.93, then came back with another $10,000 when the handicap moved into 15½ start. After looking like both bets were well and truly gone, the Swans came back to go down by 16 points, meaning one win and one loss for our Swans fan. Overall he lost $700, but he would have gladly copped that given they were never in the hunt.
The Eagles were backed for a stack to win the derby in the west, but they were never in the race either. The largest bet on the Eagles was $14,000 at the handicap start of 14 points, and there was ample support for them to win the game against Fremantle as well at 2.50. There was a late rally for Fremantle just before the game started, but it was one game where we had a good result on a favourite winning.
The Eagles have lost more players this week, and they have been big drifters against Essendon. After opening at 2.40, the Eagles were out to 2.70 into the third day of trading and there are no takers. If Scott Lucas lines up for Essendon, that price will blow out even further.
Apparently Collingwood are having a few off field dramas, and a loss to St Kilda this week will put extreme pressure on the Magpies as far as September action is concerned. They are currently at 1.50 to make the final eight, and that is after being 1.05 a month ago. They opened at 1.80 in this match on Monday morning, but after the two Shaws and Alan Didak were stood down, St Kilda had taken over as favourites at 1.65 with the Magpies out to 2.30. We have seen some money for them from punters who think the dramas may inspire Collingwood, but we have to wonder whether they can cover losing three influential ball gatherers.
Rugby League
NRL punters took us to the cleaners as well when seven of the favourites won last weekend.
There were a couple of opportunities to peg the losses back, namely in the Sharks v Dragons game, and also in the Cowboys and Roosters game. The last try to the Roosters was a controversial one, and that saw the Sydney side get home by 14 points. It didn't affect the result of the match, but it did affect betting. We had taken several big bets (including two totalling $16,000) for the Roosters to win by 11 points or more, so with the try being allowed, that meant all of those bets were winners. It is easy to sit back and talk through your pocket on what should happen, but practically every commentator said it should have been 'no try' due to off-side.....just another way to lose!
Cronulla keep winning or losing by small margins, and we could have done with a minor loss to the Sharks in their match against the Dragons. It wasn't a horrific result as the Sharks had attracted some big business conceding five points-start, but there were a lot of punters who benefited from their win through multis by taking Cronulla to win outright.
This week has been one of the busiest of the season so far, and there has been a lot of movement in most games. Mark Gasnier has been named to play for the Dragons against the Tigers on Friday night, but there must still be some doubt about his fitness. The Tigers opened at 2.25, but were quickly backed into 2.10 in a game that could really go either way.
Melbourne has an ordinary record at Brookvale, but punters think they will improve on that in the other Friday night match. Two regular rugby league winners threw down a total of $13,000 for the Storm to beat a 3½ point handicap, and that has now moved to four points, but we will be looking for more at that quote.
There is a strong possibility that the score on the Bulldogs v Cowboys game might be around the same number as the crowd on Saturday night! For those who aren't aware, this match will be played in Brisbane, and nobody could have foreseen how bad these two sides would be this season. This will probably decide who winds up at the bottom of the ladder, and the Cowboys go in as warm 1.57 favourites. Backing bad teams at bad odds is a quick way to go broke, and we don't expect to be inundated with business on this match!
Rugby Union
The All Blacks maintained there home ground advantage over the Wallabies with a comprehensive victory on Saturday night, and that result left bookmakers reeling.
We all knew of the fine record that New Zealand have at Eden Park, and while they fully deserved to be favourites, the odds seemed rather skinny given that they were beaten by the same side seven days earlier.
We thought we would find some money for Australia at 2.60, but it all came the other way with Australia getting out to 2.90 at kick-off. All the big money was for NZ including bets of $16,000 and three of $10,000 (all at 1.50) with another $10,000 bet being struck just before start time at 1.44.
The Aussies were completely unwanted (biggest bet $400), and there was nothing for them with six points-start either. The game was all over early, so at least the pain wasn't prolonged, but the win by NZ has opened the Tri-Nations title right up. The next match will not be on until Saturday week, and now the South Africans have the home ground advantage after an impressive win over the All Blacks, we think they can justify why they are 2.35 to win the series.
New Zealand have played an extra match to date (4), and have two wins and two losses, but there has been a constant stream of bets coming through for them to win the series at 2.75 this week. The Wallabies have a win over both sides, but have only grabbed one bonus point to date, and that is one of the main reasons why they are the outsiders at 3.00.
Formula One
Lewis Hamilton was looked upon as near enough to unbeatable in the Hungarian GP on Sunday after qualifying fastest again, but a tire puncture put an end to his chances.
Hamilton was 2.20 in early markets, 1.90 after the Friday session, and went into the race as hot favourite at 1.35. Unfortunately those short odds frightened away most of our punters, although there was one bet there of $1500 at that quote, and that followed on from two separate bets of $1000 for Hamilton after Friday's session at 1.90.
Felipe Massa and eventual winner Heikki Kovalainen shared the second line of betting at 6.00, with a long gap out to Kimi Raikkonen at 13.00. We continued to see money for Raikkonen to win the race, and also a bet of 1200 Euros for a podium finish at 2.75. Massa was in control; after Hamilton bowed out, but he had engine troubles 3 laps from the finish which handed the race to Kovalainen for his first victory, with Timo Glock winding up in second place ahead of Raikkonen.
Glock was 500/1 prior to qualifying, and went into the race at 67.00, the second race in a row where a 'bolter' finished in the placings.