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Australian Rules
Collingwood delivered the goods for us on Saturday night, and all of a sudden the Swans look a bit wobbly.
The Barry Hall saga is something they could have done without, and with a rather torrid draw coming up, it is feasible that the Swans could finish in the bottom half of the final eight. With that in mind we have wound their flag odds out to 14.00 (from 8.00), but there has been no interest in them this week. The only side that punters want to be on to win the flag is Geelong, but at 2.00 I don't think that is value. Granted the Cats are an awesome side, but remember that Collingwood thumped them when they met, and that they also have some able competition in the Bulldogs and Hawthorn.
The other thing worth noting is that to win a grand final a team has to win their last two 'sudden death' matches, and really how short can Geelong be in those games? They have had a very good run with injuries, but if one of their key players was to suffer any sort of injury, then their odds would blow out. The same applies to Brownlow Medal favourite Gary Ablett. Lasseters have Ablett at 1.85, but while there is no doubt he has had a terrific first half of the season, so have several others. Adam Cooney (3.75) has featured in the best players for each of the Bulldogs wins, and most others under the 21.00 mark also fit into the same boat.
The Cats got a major fright when the played Fremantle in Perth earlier in the season, but they go into this weekend's clash at near unbackable odds (1.05). For those who can't recall, Fremantle surrendered a huge lead to go down by one solitary point, but they have a shocking 'away' record having lost their last eight interstate games. The handicap has been set at 42½ points start to Fremantle, and while we don't expect them to win, we are more than happy to get something out of Geelong conceding the big start.
Sydney defeated Hawthorn by 12 goals when they last met in last year's finals series, but the Hawks have come a long way since then. The pair will do battle at the MCG on Sunday, and with Sydney missing Barry Hall and a large question mark hanging over the fitness of Tadgh Kennelly, we think that Hawthorn are next door to being 'good things'. Some punters have disagreed as we took three separate bets of $1000 for the Swans when betting opened at 3.25, but we expect the late money to be for Hawthorn on game day.
The West Coast v Richmond game is an interesting one, with 'tanking' still featuring in AFL headlines. There are differing views on how the Eagles are approaching the rest of the season, but judging by the early betting trend on this game, punters think that the Eagles will be 'full tilt'. After opening at 2.05, they have been backed into 2.00 and there has been little or no interest in Richmond. One of the reasons for the lack of backing for the Tigers maybe as a result of talk that Matthew Richardson is in doubt, so until that becomes clearer, it looks as though punters will be giving Richmond a wide berth.
Rugby League
The wheels have fallen off the Gold Coast Titans, and don't punters know it!
Manly were backed for a small fortune to beat the Titans last week, and although the Gold Coast side looked certain to provide a big upset with 20 minutes to go, Manly found another gear and won by 20 points. We did give 1.70 Manly before the State of Origin game, but the real damage was done with a series of large bets (including two of $10,000) for them to beat a 10 point handicap.
There were only five games last weekend and although the wins by Manly and a revitalized Souths came at a cost, it was a round that belonged to the bookies. Penrith delivered the goods against Parramatta, and the win by the Dragons over Newcastle was also good for our bank balance. Newcastle touched 2.05 when Danny Buderus was ruled out, and we didn't think that anybody would want to be on them, but a series of $10,000 and $5000 bets saw the Knights eventually start 1.78. The Dragons are on a roll, and this was one of the few times that the betting public ignored them.
The Titans barely have enough fit players to pick a side from, and they go into Friday night's clash against the Roosters as massive 19 point underdogs. The handicap opened at -18½ and a couple of astute early shoppers were straight into that (one bet alone of $6600), so it looks like their fall from grace will continue.
Cronulla has been a firmer against Manly on Saturday night, and although we have received some money for the Sharks, we will be making it our business to get something out of Manly. The pair met back in March when the Sharks won 16-10, and they also have an imposing 10-1 winning record against Manly at home. Many consider that the Sharks have trouble scoring, but our league analysts were far from impressed with the first 70 minutes by Manly against the Gold Coast last week. There has been a bet of $5800 taken on Manly conceding 2½ points start, but we will be looking for more.
Melbourne remains 2.50 favourites to win the competition, but there has been money for Brisbane this week. A bet of $3000 lobbed for the Broncos at 10.00, then another $2000 worth of bets arrived at 9.00, and that money coincided with the naming of Darren Lockyer and Peter Wallace in their side this week. Both are big inclusions, but as we know, historically the Broncos struggle after the rep season each year.
Golf
Anthony Kim won his second PGA title of the season when he captured the AT&T National at Congressional on Sunday. The 23 year-old emerging star became the youngest player since Tiger Woods to win multiple times on the tour and the fact that Woods was the host of this event made the win more surreal. He grew up idolising the world number one giving the win even more significance.
The two shot win over Fredrik Jacobson was full of class and void of bogies. He was aggressive yet cool in the crisis and as such as stamped himself as a star of the future. It also gets him a start in this years Ryder Cup team, an experience few have had at such a tender age. Also take into account that the latest players to win multiple times on the PGA tour under the age of 25 in a season are Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott. Both have fallen at the major hurdle but there is something in Kim's game which suggests he may be able to overcome that obstacle in the future.
This week we head to TPC Deere Run in Illinois for the John Deere Classic. Defending Champion is Jonathon Byrd at 31.00 while the favourite is two time winner this season Kenny Parry at 8.00. Also in the betting is Heath Slocom at 19.00, Aussie Aaron Baddeley at 23.00 and Tim Clark and Carl Pettersson at 26.00. Unlike previous events this has been slow to get going with little interest generated from the punting public. Given their form in recent weeks that might not be a bad thing. At least it means we may win on an event, something which will also happen to one of the PGA tour players taking part in the event.
Motor Bikes
Casey Stoner is the 2.30 favourite with Lasseters to win this weekend's German MotoGP, and given the form he's in, it's hard to put up an argument why he won't win.
The Aussie seems to have found the answer to the speed issues his Ducati was having, and he is only 29 points behind Dani Pedrosa on the title points table. Stoner finished fifth in the German GP last year, but was the fastest qualifier, so has an affinity with the track. In that particular race, Pedrosa won comfortably from Loris Capirossi and Nicky Hayden, and for anybody looking for a value bet, Hayden (26.00) night be the way to go.
He was a winner here in 2005, and has been placed in 2004, '05 and of course last year. Pedrosa was also placed in 2006, but since Stoner has found form again, it seems as though Pedrosa's Honda just can’t match it with the Ducati. The Spaniard is a 4.00 chance this week, but we haven�t seen any early money for him. Valentino Rossi is on the second line of betting at 3.25, and he has been the one attracting early support, although we think that he is off the pace as well. Forget about his last start when he finished well down the track as he crashed out early, but it just seems as though Stoner has the edge on both at the moment, a pretty similar situation to last year.
Formula One
Lewis Hamilton overcame wet and greasy conditions to win the British GP at Silverstone on Sunday, and punters had a victory as well.
Hamilton started the race as a 3.50 second favourite behind Kimi Raikkonen, and they were the only two drivers that punters wanted. Neither fared that well on the starting grid with Raikkonen in three and Hamilton in four, but they were only behind Heikki Kovalainen and Mark Webber.
Kovalainen drove his way to his maiden pole position, but he was impossible to lay, drifting from 2.75 out to 4.00. He finished a lap behind the Finn, and a win may not be too far away. Webber had trouble again, finishing well back in 10th place, and even though he qualified second fastest, nobody wanted a bar of him at 17.00. Once the conditions were known, it was the drivers who have had experience in bad conditions that punters were happy to pin their faith in, and they were right on target with Hamilton winning.
The podium placing book was a winner for us when Nick Heidfeld (8.00) and Rubens Barrichello (51.00) came in behind Hamilton as we had taken some hefty wagers for Raikkonen (1.40) and Fernando Alonso (5.50) to fill a place