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Rugby League
The last round of the regular NRL season saw punters come out well ahead with six of the eight favourites winning, but we were saved to some degree by a couple who failed to cover the spread.
The Raiders carried two $10,000 bets conceding 18 and 19 points-start, so a try to the Bulldogs in the dying minutes to get them within the mark was crucial, and Cronulla leaking several points late in the game to the Cowboys was also a little bonus as we did take several four figure bets for the Sharks conceding 10 points-start.
They were on track to win by over 20 points, but three late tries to the Cowboys saw the Sharks handicap punters come away empty handed. We did think Parramatta would produce something against the Warriors, but like the Eels fans, we were let down...again. The Warriors had it all to play for, and that seemed to inspire more support for them, including one bet of $12,000 at 1.65. One thing that did come out of the result is that the Warriors were a better result to make the final eight for us than the Knights, so it wasn't all bad news.
New Zealand won one of their two matches against Melbourne this year, but the circumstances were largely different than they are this time around. State of Origin is well behind us, and apart from a query over Dallas Johnson, the Storm will be at full strength. Having said that though, they are certainly not overpriced at 1.13, and we will be getting something out of Melbourne at the -15½.
Canberra seem to be every league fans' second favourite team, and while they have been fabulous for bookmakers this season, our league analyst thinks that their run will come to a screaming halt this week. The Raiders last 10 matches at Cronulla have resulted in only one victory, and as we said last week, the positional changes they have been forced to make due to a massive injury toll have made them vulnerable. Not too much can be taken from their win against the Bulldogs last week as it was basically a game of touch football, the going will be so much tougher against a dour Sharks side on Saturday night. While we think they will be on the receiving end of a hiding, there has been money for the Raiders with 8½ points-start. The first two bets on the game were $7000 and $3300 for Canberra, but once the handicap moved into a flat eight, the Raiders money disappeared.
Melbourne remain odds on at 1.75 to lift the trophy aloft again, and the Geelong/Melbourne premiership double is now into a best priced 2.20.
Australian Rules
Collingwood are not the most popular football side on the planet, but their popularity rose with bookies last week after their come from behind win over Adelaide.
With the other three favourites winning (and covering the line), there needed to be some relief somewhere, and it was the Magpies who provided it. The biggest bet that Lasseters took for the round was on the Crows, that being $15,000 at -6½ start (1.93), and there was also ample support for them to win the game. Geelong took St Kilda (and the bookies) to the cleaners on Sunday, with most of the damage done at the handicaps. After opening at -32½, the handicap had moved into -38½ at the kick off, with no money at all coming for the Saints.
So, can St Kilda bounce back from that loss? All year, most teams who have suffered at the hands of Geelong have also gone missing the next week, but Collingwood are returning from a torrid encounter interstate, so we are prepared to stick with the Saints. The betting has been quiet on this game with only $4000 worth of bets coming for the Magpies at 1.74 early in the week, but we would expect punters to keep out until after Friday night's game.
In that encounter, there has been money both ways with early bets of $4500 and $3000 coming for Sydney at 2.05, but to offset that there was one early shopper who has placed $5000 on the Bulldogs conceding five points-start. Sydney looked a different side in the second half against the Kangaroos. Both sides have struggled over the last 10 weeks, so who knows what will happen here?
The good thing about Hawthorn's win last week is that it seems to have inspired some interest in the flag betting, with most support this week being for the Hawks at 4.00, now into 3.75. The Cats remain near on un-backable at 1.30, and that is the end of the chances as far as punters are concerned. If the Cats do progress through to the grand final, the only hope of a result (or a decent betting game) is if their opposition is Hawthorn, and at the moment that looks like becoming a reality.
Formula One
Every F1 season there is always at least one race that makes big news, and it happened with the Belgian GP at the weekend.
Lewis Hamilton was relegated after the presentation, and that saw the race presented to Felippe Massa, but it was a different matter as far as the settling of bets is concerned. Because of the situation that arose, and as we speak there is talk of another overturning of the result, betting is paid out on the placings at the time of the podium presentation.
It is the equivalent of 'correct weight' in horse racing, and any retrospective inquiries do not come into play. It is the fairest way to deal with betting as there is always the possibility of these results being dragged through the courts, which of course could take years to finalise. It would have suited us if Massa had been given the race before the presentation as he was a much better result than Hamilton, but that's life.
There will be a quick backup with the Italian F1 on this weekend, and Hamilton and company can expect a hostile reception from Ferrari fans. He has been installed as the 2.50 favourite, and did finish second in this race last year behind Fernando Alonso, who was also in a McLaren at the time.
Alonso hasn't reached such dizzy heights this season, and is the only reason he is quoted at 34.00 to win this week is the fact that he won there last year. Massa (2.75) did not finish last year after having suspension problems, but as he now seems to be the only chance to lift the title apart from Hamilton, he will be given all the favours from Ferrari. Kimi Raikkonen continues to have troubles, and while we did see plenty of money for him in the pre post market last week at 3.75, there has been practically nothing for him to win in Italy at the same odds.
Basketball
The Australian basketball season starts this week, but how would you know?
The only news the NBL has been able to generate in the off-season was the departure of three teams from the competition, and even at this late stage there is some conjecture over the line-ups of some of those that are left in the competition. It defies logic that a code clearly struggling would start their season smack bang in the middle of finals for the two major Aussie football codes, but I guess that says it all.
Having said that though, there has been a bit of interest shown in the market to win the title, when it opened this week, mainly for the teams at the head of the market. The Melbourne Tigers are clear favourites at 2.75, and so they should be when you look at their squad. They already looked pretty good on paper before the signed Ebi Ere, probably the best player in the comp, but they have lost McDonald and Thomas from last season.
That is where most of the early backing has gone, along with Perth who we have listed at 5.00, who once again appear to have plenty of depth. One of the other sides to attract a handful of early bets (nearly $2000) is Cairns, but while they look good on paper, they have a few players on their roster who have a history of being injury prone. The games will go up on Friday, but with so many unknowns to deal with, the markets will be very volatile.