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Australian Rules
We decided to take on Sydney and Adelaide last weekend, and while we were completely wrong with the Crows, it is still hard to believe that Sydney got up and defeated the Dockers.
Fremantle went into round one as the heavily backed second favourite to take out the flag, but they have had a few shockers this season. There have been countless games where they have surrendered big leads to go down narrowly, but they did look 'home' last Saturday night. Sydney was coupled up in most multis, and also had one bet of $12,000 placed on them at 1.50. The only saving grace from the game was that they failed to cover a 10 point handicap, so that did ease the pain somewhat.
There was no such relief in the Adelaide v Richmond game as the Crows jumped straight to the front and belittled the Tigers. Lasseters gave 1.68 for a Crows win, with the biggest bets recorded at 1.65 ($15,000) and also a big bet of $9500 for them at -7½ points-start. Just for good measure, we also took money for them to win by 40+, with the biggest of those bets being $1500 at 5.50, and that bet came from Sweden!
So, the plan is to get square with the Crows this week. They are 1.70 to beat Essendon, and while the finals race is all but over for Essendon, it does appear as though they will have Scott Lucas back. These two sides have met at Telstra Dome on four occasions, with Essendon winning all four, so that is a good enough stat for us.
The wheels have also fallen off Brisbane, and they need a win on Saturday night when they host the Bulldogs. The Doggies have also hit the wall, and although they did thump the Lions by over 10 goals back in June, we are prepared to take them on in Brisbane. Punters have been all over them early in the week with close to $9,000 in bets forcing a price change from 1.90 into 1.83, and the support has continued to come.
We did envisage seeing money for St Kilda against Fremantle on Sunday, but it has all been the other way. Fremantle opened at 1.70, but a barrage of bets (largest $6500) has seen that price disappear into 1.62 and it may shorten further as we chase the Saints out. St Kilda's form on bigger grounds is terrible, and they have only managed two wins from their last 10 trips interstate.
'Boomer' Harvey might not think he has any chance in the Brownlow, but we do. Harvey is the new favourite at 3.00 ahead of Gary Ablett at 3.50, then Jimmy Bartel at 4.50. While hating to harp on it, Gary Ablett is massively under the odds, yet we continue to see money for him. He would not have polled a vote last week, which now makes it possibly six 'vote free' weeks in a row, but I suppose if Ablett is 'unders', then that must mean most of the others in commission are over the odds. The trick is to find the winner!
Rugby League
Manly may have been a little unlucky to go down to the Storm last Friday night, and while it was costly for business, it was pleasing to see a game of tough rugby league rather than some of the touch football that has been served up recently.
As reported last week, all of the big money was for Melbourne conceding 3½ and 4 points-start, with one Sydney client placing a total of $20,000 at those two numbers. When Manly touched 2.40, we did find some interest in them, but not enough. I don't think that the Sea Eagles lost too many friends with that performance, but there has been a big reaction in premiership betting with some outlets now offering as much as 5.50 Manly while the Storm are into 2.00 in some places. That seems a big disparity after watching that game.
The results of round 22 were definitely in favour of the bookies, although a few bargain hunters thought there was some value with Parramatta. We had no trouble getting money out of the Eels, with one Queensland punter placing $4200 on them to win outright at 5.25. How did he know? Having said that, we were more than happy to pay as the Roosters were the anchor leg in all the big multis for the weekend, with one Northern Territory client having a decent hard luck story after taking an $11,000 'pick six' which went down the gurgler when the Roosters fell short.
With betting on NRL becoming global, it is always quite interesting seeing the betting trends, and there was another example of that this week. There are actually more bookmakers out of Australia that bet on the NRL than there is inside of the country, and it wouldn't surprise many that the markets are normally a direct copy of the 'openers' from the Aussie books. That is all fine until there is a major change to a side, and that is music to the ears of switched on punters. On Wednesday night, the Dragons lost Brett Morris and Jamie Soward, so they blew from 2.60 out to 3.00. At that quote, we took close to $8000 worth of bets, all from the UK, so no doubt there would be several bookies in that part of the world who would have been busy writing bets for the Brisbane Broncos at 'over' the odds.
Every game this weekend has some sort of ramification as far as end of season betting is concerned, and one of the more intriguing battles will be in Canberra on Sunday. The Raiders have been so impressive this season, and we thought that punters would be all over them in this match against Newcastle, but the early traders have been on the Knights. Close to $14,000 in bets has gone on Newcastle with 4½ start, and there has also been backing for them to win the game at 2.45. New Zealand has turned the corner recently, and they are another home side that we thought would win this week, but again the early money has been for the travelling side. Cronulla continue to win (just) and a couple of league followers placed $5000 on the Sharks at 2.30 as soon as betting opened. The other significant move this week has been for Manly to inflict some pain on Souths. The handicap opened 11 points in favour of Manly, but that quickly disappeared after a host of bets (largest $6000) arrived, and although the handicap has now moved to 12, there is no interest at all in the Rabbitohs.
Rugby Union
Punters thought that Argentina would get within 25 points of South Africa last Saturday, and when the Pumas led 6-0 early on, those punters would have been on good terms with themselves. That feeling didn't last for long however as the Springboks moved into overdrive to win 63-9. Most of the money for Argentina came from England, with the biggest of those bets being 3000 pounds.
The Springboks were impressive in their Tri-Nations games before last week, and get a chance to all but seal the title if they can brush aside New Zealand on Saturday. South Africa have lost Bakkie Botha and Jaque Fourie, but into the side come Danie Rossouw and Frans Steyn, and while both have also had recent injury problems, the side still looks capable. Lasseters opened New Zealand as 2.00 slight outsiders, and there were no bites at all, so South Africa will definitely go into this game as favourites. They are currently 2.40 to win the Tri-Nations, with New Zealand at 2.75 and Australia remain the outsiders at 3.00.
Motor Bikes
Casey Stoner is 1.70 to make it back to back wins in the Czech Republic MotoGP this weekend, the first race after the mid season break.
Controversy surrounded Stoner's last race at Laguna Seca in the USA, but his placing has meant that he is only 25 points behind Championship leader Valentino Rossi. The Italian is 2.75 to win in Brno, but the theory is that the demanding circuit will suit the Ducati’s, who have a terrific record in this race over recent years.
Oddly enough, our punters have singled out Rossi as the one to beat as practically every bet has been for him, so a lot will hinge on the qualifying times. Dani Pedrosa (6.00) and Jorge Lorenzo (21.00) have had a torrid time with injuries, but both are expected to be fit for this week's race. Both are capable of causing an upset as the form of each was good before suffering falls.