Buddha Stats
Buddha's Princesses
Signup to our Free Newsletter
Top Stories |
HOME > Bookies Bag
Australian Rules
After an early rush for Victoria to win the Hall of Fame game (1.80 into 1.65), the bulk of the business leading into Saturday was for the Dream Team, although a late flurry for the Vics saw it all average out.
After opening at 2.25, the Dream Team touched odds on (1.94) early on Saturday on the back of some hefty bets including $8000 at 2.25, $8000 at 2.10, and bets of $7700 and $6000 with a goal start. The surprising aspect of the move was that even though a lot of the bets were coming from Victoria, this match didn't really have that love/hate relationship that 'real' state of origin matches had in years gone by.
The Vics did touch 1.92 at one stage, but a few bets of $2000 at that quote, and then $10,000 at 1.90 saw them go into the match at exactly where they were at the start of the week. Of all of the bet types on offer (outside the winner book), the standout in popularity was the Allen Aylett Medal for the best player on the ground. Chris Judd started favourite at 10.00 (in from 15.00), but there were several big firmers in the betting, mostly the midfielders. Eventual winner Brendan Fevola was a complete 'skinner' for us, that is he failed to attract a single bet, even though he was relatively high up in the betting at 26.00.
Things are back to normal this week, and there are plenty of short priced favourites going around. Using the Monday 'openers' as a guide, the price for all eight favorites to win this week was a little over 15.00, easily the shortest so far this season. Four sides, Geelong, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney are shorter than 1.25 to win, and I can't really produce an argument to say that they won't win. The handicaps in those games is where early traders have been active, with one punter placing $5000 on the Eagles with 26½ points start against the Roos, and $5000 on Essendon with 36½ start against Sydney. The mail is the Eagles will be making wholesale changes to their side this week, and even though this will be played at a neutral ground (the Gold Coast), our Aussie Rules analyst is tipping a flogging to the Eagles. The other game is interesting as it will be played at ANZ Stadium, not the SCG. Matches played there at night have been low scoring, and there is bad weather predicted for Sydney. If Dustin Fletcher plays for the Bombers, then, we can see Essendon getting inside that handicap.
Judging by the 'smart' money going on Brisbane this week, we are assuming that Simon Black will be back for the Lions against Carlton. After opening at 1.95, Brisbane have gone into clear favourites at 1.80, with one Victorian leading the charge with bets totaling $9300 at 1.95. The Lions have beaten Carlton in both previous meetings at Telstra Dome, and did beat them by over 100 points the last time they met at the GABBA last year. However, the Blues are in better form than they were then, and if the real Brendan Fevola turns up, then the Blues are more than capable of kicking a winning score in what looks to be a likely 'shootout'.
Rugby League
Although we tipped Cronulla to beat the Cowboys last week, we were another of the bookies who got caught up in a decent sized plunge on the Sharks.
We missed them early in the week, but when there was a rumour circulating Saturday that Jonathon Thurston would not back up from the Test on Friday night, and that saw the Sharks firm again. Two punters each had $5500 on Cronulla with 3 points-start, and there was more again for them to win at 2.30. One small bonus occurred when the Fox coverage came on and they informed us all that Thurston was in fact playing, and we were able to get close to $10,000 for the Cowboys at 1.60, but it was nowhere near enough.
One event that we did have an unexpected windfall on was the naming of the New South Wales halfback. When Lasseters opened the market several weeks ago, Peter Wallace was our favourite at 3.25. The Brisbane half actually touched 2.50 in the first week (including 3 bets of $400), but after that he was completely friendless in the betting, and was a 67.00 chance when betting closed prior to last Friday's Test match. There were three different favourites throughout betting (Wallace, Brett Finch and Kurt Gidley), and it was Gidley who started a red-hot 1.10 chance to get the nod. The late mail was that all Gidley had to do was get through the Monday game against the Storm, but unfortunately he fractured his cheekbone.
State of Origin betting has been very quiet in the first few days after the sides were named, and there is a good reason for that...the Maroons are favourites! Queenslanders hate it when the bookies install them as the team to beat, but even though the game is in Sydney, they have to be favourites. Currently Queensland is 1.75 with NSW at 2.10, but given that we have seen nothing at all for the Blues, we would expect favourite backers to launch into Queensland on the day of the game.
With Origin players out this week, several sides find themselves as despised outsiders, and punters don't want to have a bar of them. Melbourne is 2.65 to beat the Dragons (only slightly better at 3.00 to win the premiership), and in the first 48 hours of trading, we failed to take a single bet for the Storm. They face a monumental task with the list they have, but they have always been able to unearth new talent, and we all know the Dragons have plenty of convictions against them when they are favourites.
The Cowboys are another side hit hard by Origin, and on top of that they are back in a form slump. Punters reacted quickly in the Cowboys v Manly game, with the first $10,000 bet all coming for Manly conceding 10½ points start. That handicap has moved into -12½ a few days out from the game, and from our point of view that seems a terrible lot of points, but punters have been right on target when the money has been on recently.
Formula One
Backing drivers who qualify quickest in F1 has proven quite fruitful for punters over the past few seasons, and Felipe Massa added to that list in Turkey at the weekend.
The win in Istanbul made it three Turkish GP's on the trot for Massa, who won by nearly four seconds from Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen. Given Massa's obvious affinity with this track, he was always well in the betting pre-qualifying at 2.70, but once he drew pole he was virtually unbackable at 1.40.
The betting was very quiet after that as punters always find it difficult to back the second string driver to oust the number one driver, and who can really blame them as we have seen a lot of 'team driving' down through the years. We did manage to get something small out of Raikkonen at 2.10 before qualifying, and a little more out of him at 5.50 when he had to come off the second line of the grid, but there was no interest at all in runner-up Hamilton who went in as an 8.00 chance.
Surprisingly we did find plenty of support for Heikki Kovalainen to finish on the podium at 1.90 after he qualified second fastest, but after an early scrap with Raikkonen, he wound up in 12th place. Raikkonen remains title favourite at 1.50, easing quite alarmingly from 1.20, with both Massa and Hamilton at 4.75 following the Turkish race. Raikonnen currently sits on 35 points, seven points ahead of Massa and Hamilton. The next GP will be in scenic Monte Carlo in a fortnight's time.
Motorbikes
This weekend's French MotoGP may well be the defining moment in the season for reigning champion Casey Stoner, particularly if the championship leaders get amongst the points.
Currently Dani Pedrosa is in the lead on 81 points ahead of Jorge Lorenzo(74), Valentino Rossi(72) and then there's a decent gap to Stoner on 56 points. We have opened Casey as 4.00 equal second pick (with Pedrosa) for the French GP, with Rossi the favourite at 2.75.
Lorenzo is over priced at 6.00 on his previous form, but he is struggling with injury after breaking his ankle in the practice sessions in China. He did go on to ride in that race, finishing fourth behind Rossi, but you have to wonder what the injury will be like two weeks down the track. Last year's race in France won by another Aussie, Chris Vermuelen, and that is the reason for him being only 17.00 to win this year.
Vermuelen's best form has always been in wet and greasy conditions, so if there is any bad weather around, he will be hard to beat. He defeated Marco Melandri and Stoner on that occasion, and to show what a strange weekend it was, Colin Edwards was the quickest qualifier. History has a strange way of repeating itself sometimes, but one would think that the winner is likely to come from one of the top four. Betting on a podium finish will be available once it is confirmed that Lorenzo is a definite starter.
Rugby Union
There were seven teams still capable of making the semis of Super 14s and after the penultimate round nothing has changed.
Any of the six teams behind the Crusaders can still make it and if the Hurricanes who are currently second on the table lose to the Blues in Auckland without a bonus point, they can still conceivably miss the finals. That means plenty at stake for all these teams while at the other end of the table the Highlanders, Cheetahs and Lions are all still searching for the win which will help them avoid the wooden spoon.
Last week was a mixed bag of results for bookies with the Chiefs being the only favourites to get beaten, while the Stormers and Waratahs played out a thrilling draw. Punters got off to a flyer with the Hurricanes, Bulls and Blues all covering the start. The best backed of those being the Hurricanes who firmed from 10½ into 11½ including two separate $5,000 wagers. Bookies then had some respite as the Reds gave the Crusaders a scare before going down 21-27 however, some of that was given back as the Sharks scored two tries in the last 10 minutes to cover the 13½ points they were conceding to the Cheetahs. The true result for the bagmen came in the form of the Lions who were 3.20 outsiders against the Chiefs at 1,38 and were receiving 7.0 points. The 33-27 result was not what The Chiefs were after and they will need a few Indians to get up this week if they are to make the semis.
This week is a blockbuster with derbies and important games littered all over the fixture. We kick off on Friday with the Blues hosting the Hurricanes at Eden Park. The Blues are 1.82 with the Hurricanes at 2.02, and the money has mostly been for the home team to this point. A win will keep the Blues hopes alive but the Hurricanes can ill afford a loss and run the risk of missing the semis. They have also tasted success at their last three meetings in Super 14s so I'm sticking with the 'Canes. The Force then host the Brumbies in the West with the winner having a higher finish on the table and bragging rights for the next eight months, The Force are 1.75 and the Brumbies 2.12 and while this game has attracted little interest to date I suspect punters will rally behind the Force nearing kick off.
Saturday begins with the Crusaders 17½ point favourites over the Highlanders before the Reds host the Waratahs in Brisbane in what is always a dour struggle. The 'Tahs are 1.50 and must concede 5½ points to the Reds who will lift for David Croft's farewell game but may struggle without Latham and Ione. The Lions then host the Stomers in Johannesburg with the home team 3.10 and receiving 8½ points whilst the Cheetahs host the Bulls in Bloemfontein with identical betting. Both home teams have plenty to play for as a win will mean avoiding the Wooden Spoon.
The final game in Durban may decide the make up of the semis one way or another. The Sharks are 1.42 and concede 7½ to the Chiefs who are 2.95. A slip up by the Hurricanes, Waratahs or Stormers will present an opportunity for the Sharks to re-enter the final four while the Chiefs are hoping for the Hurricanes to win and the Waratahs and Stormers to lose for their opportunity to present itself. Whatever happens its likely the Super 14s season will go right to the final game. The best backed team to date has been the Cheetahs with punters all over the 8½ including a $6,000 wager from the UK. Perhaps they might believe that Cheetahs go a little quicker when chased by a Bull but they have been too disappointing to have in our opinion.
Golf
Sergio Garcia won the 'fifth major', The Players Championship, to capture his first PGA title since 2005.
The 28-year-old Spaniard became just the second European to win the PGA Tour's showcase event as he beat Paul Goydos on the first sudden death playoff hole, the par-3 17th. The victory was the seventh of his career and the first in 54 starts. While the win was worth $1.71 million, what was more important was the boost it will give the Spaniard's confidence, particularly after the putting woes he has had to contend with in recent years.
Sunday's victory reinforces Garcia's belief that he's been working on the right things. He knows when he has confidence in himself, like he did on the Stadium Course he's among the best players in the world. The Spaniard has been there before in big events, always majors, starting at Medinah where the 19-year-old took on Tiger Woods and with some inventive shot making battled his way to a second-place finish in the 1999 PGA Championship. Most recently, it was at Carnoustie where the Spaniard missed a 10-footer for par on the 72nd hole and went on to lose a playoff to Padraig Harrington. I'm sure this win will have exorcised some demons.
This week we head to Georgia for the AT &T Classic at the TPC Sugarloaf. The defending champion is Zach Johnson, and he has been installed a 15.00 chance behind the consistent Stewart Cink at 11.00 and Retief Goosen at 14.00. On face value it appears a poor price for Johnson who has had only one top 10 finish this year and has missed the cut in two of his last three events, however, with two wins here and a runner-up finish in 2006, he has shown he has what it takes at Sugarloaf.
Betting has been a little quiet on the event with the top half a dozen in the betting friendless. The first player punters have shown an interest in is Jonathon Byrd at 34.00, is a couple of roughies in Nicolas Thompson at 67.00 and young Aussie Jason Day at 101.00, both backed to win over $40,000. Thompson has had three top 10 finishes this season including a fourth at the Byron Nelson three starts ago, while Day has had two top tens and a tie for eighth at the Shell Houston. If you like following the money then you could do worse than Thompson, however, Day has missed five of his last six cuts and looks unlikely to me.
It doesn't look as though this event will reach any great heights from a betting angle however if you are after a bet you can find value in Briny Baird. He hasn't finished further back than 17th in his last three starts and his fourth place behind Garcia in The Player's was full of merit.