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Rugby League
What a week rugby league has had! The drama's in Queensland saw premiership betting suspended for a few days, but now that the Bronco's have named an unchanged side for this week's clash against Melbourne, betting is back up and running again. The loss suffered by Melbourne last week has turned the whole market upside down, but the incredible thing is that Melbourne are back into favourites, and punters still want to take the short odds even though they now have to win three 'sudden death' games. Prior to last weekend, Melbourne were 1.75 to win the title, and 2.25 to win the NRL/AFL double in the combination with Geelong. We had actually taken $5000 worth of bets at that quote last week, but in some markets issued on Monday morning, Melbourne were out to 3.25 second picks to win the NRL behind Manly at 2.75. That has all changed now, with the Storm now 2.60 and Manly out to 2.90, even though they have the week off. On Wednesday of this week, Melbourne attracted bets of $10,000 and $5000 at 2.75, so it looks as though if Melbourne do overcome Brisbane this week, then they will be nice and short against Cronulla next week. We did think that Brisbane would have a lot of support this week as they were backed for a fortune last week, but they have drifted from 2.40 out to 2.50 in the first 24 hours of trading. It does seem as though Brisbane are going to get to terrific odds this week on the back of the support (and bookies liabilities) coming for Melbourne to win the title.
In the other final, the Warriors are the team that punters want to be on, and while they were impressive against Melbourne, we have one niggling doubt about them. Sides that have to back up from Sunday to Friday have a poor record, and the Warriors not only have to do that, but off course also had to fly back to NZ in the interim. It will also be hard for them to back up on the high of last Sunday's victory, but conversely, the Roosters have to attempt to put last week's capitulation behind them as well. Anyway, we have taken nearly $8000 for the Warriors to win the game at 1.60, and there is also money for them to cover the 3½ point handicap. Punters should be aware that this game is an early start due to the time difference between Australia and New Zealand.
Australian Rules
Monday night is Brownlow Medal night, and I must admit to being a bit disappointed in the Australian public this year… there have been no 'leaks'. Normally by now we would have had half a dozen stories and emails on who has won, and by how many, but perhaps the public have finally woken up that all of these supposed leaks are just a hoax. Many thousands of dollars has been burnt down through the years by punters who rush in believing that they have a certain winner, but I suppose you could argue that they get their right whack for trying to bet on something that they are certain has been decided. With none of that mail floating around this year the markets have been fairly stable, but in the latter part of this week there has been a concerted push for Jimmy Bartel to make it back to back wins. This time last week Bartel was 4.25, but that price has been cut to 3.25. Gary Ablett is back out to 2.50, and I must admit he has been hard to sell since Champion Data released some interesting Brownlow numbers this week which pointed to what a task he actually faces. Brent Harvey holds his place in the betting at 4.25, and outside of that trio, the main interest has been in Nick Riewoldt and Joel Corey who have come in slightly to 13.00. For the record, we also think that while Ablett is the best player in the competition he has missed too many voting opportunities, and that Brent Harvey will have the Brownlow in his possession this time next week.
Geelong are going into Friday nights clash with the Bulldogs at prohibitive odds, and while we agree that they look likely to win, the -39½ points that punters are willing to take seems very short. A couple of Aussie Rules punters who rarely lose are going to test our theory anyway as they have plonked nearly $12,000 on Geelong to beat that handicap, so we hope the Bulldogs will be as competitive against the Cats as they were in the first half of their last meeting. On that occasion scores were level at the major break, but the Geelong Machine moved into overdrive in the second half to win by 12 goals.
There is a strong chance that bad weather may intervene in Saturday night's game between Hawthorn and St Kilda, so that must put the Saints right in the race. They have a great recent history against the Hawks, and with a couple of big Hawthorn names appearing to be struggling with injury, there is some real value for St Kilda. They have been backed to win the game early this week (4.00 into 3.60), but we have now gone after Hawthorn, who all of a sudden are hard to lay at 1.32. Quite often at this stage of the finals there is more money for the underdog than favourites (unless that team is Geelong), so it does seem as though St Kilda will come in even further. We have taken close to $4000 for Hawthorn to win the flag at 4.25 this week, with Geelong still the short priced favourite at 1.33.
Motor Bikes
Much to the delight of punters, Valentino Rossi won a rain shortened Indianapolis motoGP on Sunday, and that has basically wound up the riders championship. With only four races remaining, Rossi has a lead of 87 points over Casey Stoner, so we don't expect to see much betting action in upcoming races until the riders compete in Australia. That will be a race where Stoner, Vermuellen and West will be out to salvage something from the season, and should be really competitive. Stoner had his sequence of seven pole positions in a row broken in the USA when Rossi was the fastest rider on Saturday, but in contrast to race day that was conducted in dry conditions. With rain predicted on Sunday, and Stoner a fantastic rider in wet weather, Lasseters had co favourites at 2.35, but 80% of the betting was for Rossi to win. Dani Pedrosa was next in line at 13.00, and while he was backed to take out close to $10,000, he was never in the hunt in the 20 lap race. Rossi defeated Nicky Hayden and Jorge Lorenzo, with Stoner winding up in fourth place. The next race in two weeks time will be in Japan.
Basketball
Strange as it may seem, there was some interest shown in the two NBL games at the weekend even though they didn't grab too many headlines up against the AFL and NRL finals. Prior to Saturday's game, there was a nationwide plunge on the Melbourne Tigers to win the title. As much as 3.00 was given, but by tip off time in the first game, 2.250 was hard to get. We took bets of $4000 (2.75), $6000 at 2.50, and rounded it off with another $4000 bet at 2.40. The Tigers were heavily backed in their first game against Sydney Spirit, but the result went our way when the Tigers failed to cover the 12 point handicap that had been set. Two bets of $5000 came for the Tigers conceding the start, and while they looked to be on target to cover that spread for most of the first half, the Spirit showed some of that to keep the margin within 10 points.
Wollongong travel to New Zealand tonight (Thurs), and this does look like a game where the margin could be anything. The Breakers have a good side on paper, and proved last season they were a force at home. The Hawks go into this game with defender Mat Campbell in doubt, and Glen Saville has a broken finger. Saville is expected to play, but that won't help matters much with a broken digit. Lasseters has set the handicap at 11½ points in favour of New Zealand, and we are looking for money for Wollongong with the start.