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Australian Rules
The eight teams to play off in this year's finals are decided with still one round to go, but most interest in the final round will centre on the Carlton v Hawthorn clash where Buddy Franklin and Brendan Fevola will be attempting to kick 100 goals for the season.
We have opened up markets on both players, and when and if they get the ton, with a huge amount of interest being shown. Franklin is sitting on 98 goals, and looks a certainty to get the 100, but you just never know what Buddy is going to do. The favourite way for Franklin is for the 100 to come in the second quarter and that is 2.20, but there has been solid betting for him to get it all wrapped up in the first quarter, which has been backed from 2.30 into 2.10. His form at Telstra has been hot and cold this year, but he did kick nine goals there against Essendon in round 11, and we do expect him to rack up this milestone, and early in the game!
Fevola is a different story as he is sitting on 92 goals, so of course needs eight. Looking back through his form at Telstra, Fev has bagged six goals on two occasions there this season, and did kick eight against Hawthorn back in 2006. You would think he would struggle to get the eight required, but Chris Judd came out on Wednesday and inferred that the Blues would be doing there utmost to see that Fevola is at least given the chance. For that reason alone, we have taken some good bets from punters who think he won't, with two $5000 bets coming in at 1.20 and 1.15 for Fevola to miss the ton. For the record, we think Franklin will do so in the first quarter, and Fevola will in the fourth quarter.
That particular game has been a hard one to get a gauge on, and punters are also treating it with caution. There has been a sprinkling of money for Carlton, into 2.95 from 3.00, and very little for Hawthorn to win at 1.43, with the view being that as Hawthorn already know who they will be playing next week, perhaps they will take the foot off the accelerator.
The Friday night game will see Collingwood travel across to the west to take on the Dockers, and we have been surprised to see money for the home side. One punter has already placed a total of $8500 on the Dockers to win at 2.65, and that was after it was announced that Matthew Pavlich would be out again this week. Collingwood were so impressive in beating the Swans last week that we can't see any reason why they won't do the same thing again on the expanses of Subiaco Oval.
The Eagles are 16.00 to beat Geelong on Saturday, and that makes them the longest priced side to go around this season. Some in the industry are saying that they are the longest priced outsiders ever, and that the handicap (72½) is also a record high. They are wrong in both instances as in the early to mid 1990's, Fitzroy, the Brisbane Bears, and the Swans were quite often giving away much bigger starts.
The only thing that can save the Eagles from another hiding this week will be bad weather and even that might not be enough. Geelong thrashed them 182-47 back in June, and the Eagles have now lost their last 10 matches interstate. It all adds up to doom and gloom for Eagles fans!
Rugby League
With two rounds of the NRL to go, all of the major 'futures' options are still up for grabs.
The minor premiership, top four, top eight, and even the wooden spoon can all be still heading in different directions, and nearly every match this week has a bearing on what will happen.
We all know what Cronulla have had to face this week, and their match against the Tigers has been a spirited betting affair, with a really good push for the Sharks. Both sides opened at 1.90, but close to $15,000 for the Sharks has seen them wound into 1.83, with the Tigers out to 2.00. We have noticed interest in the Tigers, and while their season is practically over, they have a fantastic record against Cronulla, having won nine in a row against the Sharks since 1993.
The Cowboys can potentially avoid the wooden spoon if they beat Canberra on Saturday night, and punters think they can. The Cowboys opened as 1.95 slight underdogs, but both sides are now at 1.93 after a series of bets came for the North Queensland side. The last eight times these two sides have met, the winning margin has been six points or less and each side has won four of those games. This match should be a free flowing score line, and with the Raiders having a growing injury toll, perhaps the Cowboys can avoid running last with a victory.
The enigmatic Penrith Panthers travel across the Tasman to take on the Warriors on Sunday, and while the Kiwi side let us down badly last week, we think they will bounce back against Penrith. The last time Penrith played in Auckland, the Warriors trounced them 54-14, and that has been the trouble with Penrith for three years. They leak too many points. Both sides can mathematically make the finals, but in our opinion, the nine points-start that Penrith is receiving is nowhere near enough.
Formula One
Felipe Massa continued on with his good recent for to chalk up win number four in the 2008 season, and that puts him on equal footing with Lewis Hamilton as far as wins are concerned.
Hamilton still maintains a six point lead in the Drivers Championship (70 points), and amazingly Kimi Raikkonen (57 points) now faces an uphill battle to get back into the race. He is capable, but we are prepared to take on his supporters at 6.50 as his season is not going well. Raikkonen had to withdraw at the weekend due to engine trouble, so he can't really be blamed for that failure, but Massa is the one flying the flag for Ferrari. He is now 3.00 to win the title with Hamilton still at the head of proceedings at 1.75.
Massa started the European GP as solid favourite after qualifying fastest. After the sessions had finished, Massa opened at 2.25, but was into 2.10 at race start time. The only other driver in contention was Hamilton, who also firmed in the market, starting at 2.65 after 3.00 had been given earlier in the day. Punters sorted this race out beautifully as Hamilton was the only driver who could possibly have beaten Massa, and he finished a little over five seconds in arrears. We struggled to get any money at all for Raikkonen (7.00) or Robert Kubica (15.00), although Kubica was one of the better backed drivers to finish on the podium (2.75). The Pole did just that, winding up in third position.
The next GP will be held in Belgium on September 7, and betting is open already, with Hamilton slight favourite (2.60) over Massa (2.75)
Motor Bikes
Casey Stoner needs a win, and also for Valentino Rossi to fail, if he is to get back into a position where he can win this year's MotoGP Championship.
The bikes will be in action at San Marino this week, and Stoner was victorious there last year, and ironically Rossi failed to finish. That race was held in wet conditions, and it saw another Aussie in Chris Vermuellen wind up in second place behind Stoner, so those two will no doubt be hoping for a similar finish this year.
Stoner came off in the Czech Republic two weeks ago when leading, and if it wasn't for that fact, he would be a lot shorter than the 1.90 we are offering. Rossi fans have been keen to take the 2.50 for the Italian to win, while Dani Pedrosa is pretty much friendless in early betting at 9.00.
Punters have it in their minds that one of either Stoner or Rossi will continue to win except for accidents, and that is how the races are panning out. Over the past two or three races there has been a marked improvement from a couple of the regular 'stragglers', namely Alex De Angelis, Loris Capirossi and Shinya Nakano, and while we don't expect any of that trio to force the issue with the two big names at the head of betting, each has a chance of at least a podium finish.